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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd