Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
